Sunday, May 22, 2011

Death of OBL

So what I thought I'd do today is talk about the death of Osama Bin Laden (yeah I know late post, no one cares).As I've listened and talked with others about the affects that this mans death would have on the War on Terror I've come up with varying results and opinions. I;ve heard so many different theories, from "he's still alive" to "AQ is finished and the war on Terror will soon be won", many of which I cannot fully agree with (though I do believe the man is deader than dirt and floating underwater right now). The one thing that almost every person I've talked to has been willing to admit to is that they will not shed a single tear for this man being dead, but having admitted to that most believed that this was no where near the end of the War on Terror or of AQ.
Even with the killing of OBL and the taking of all the intel inside the compound during the raid I have to say that this is probably going to end up deeply fracturing and disorganizing the larger AQ organization but not destroying it. As you look back on previous terror networks, whether it was the PLO, Black September,or many of the European communist terrorist networks, that with the killing of their leadership or the dismantling of the original group structure that the lower ranking operatives or combatants will escape or fade away long enough to form a newer, often more violent and fanatical group. This is how terrorism has always operated and survived. Added to this is that AQ has been around for nearly 30 years , they've have more then enough time to create a structure that would allow them to survive without their founder. The reason that I believe this to be true is looking at Al Queda in Iraq after the death of Abu Musab al Zarqawi, they were greatly reliant on his leadership ruthlessness to continue gaining power, but after his death the group was disorganized for a time but recovered with new leadership. Lastly even if AQ was to collapse after OBL's death they still influence the various militant groups which they were connected to as an example, either as a group structure to emulate or so an example of martyrdom to strive for.

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